Temporal and spatial analysis of over 7,000 measles cases outbreak from 2018 to 2019 in the Brazilian Amazon.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to present a temporal and spatial analysis of the 2018 measles outbreak in Brazil, particularly in the metropolitan city of Manaus in the Amazon region, and further introduce a new tool for spatial analysis. METHODS: We analyzed the geographical data of the residences of over 7,000 individuals with measles in Manaus during 2018 and 2019. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to characterize various aspects of the outbreak, including the onset and prevalence of symptoms, demographics, and vaccination status. A visualization tool was also constructed to display the geographical and temporal distribution of the reported measles cases. RESULTS: Approximately 95% of the included participants had not received vaccination within the past decade. Heterogeneity was observed across all facets of the outbreak, including variations in the incubation period and symptom presentation. Age distribution exhibited two peaks, occurring at one year and 18 years of age, and the potential implications of this distribution on predictive analysis were discussed. Additionally, spatial analysis revealed that areas with the highest case densities tended to have the lowest standard of living. CONCLUSION: Understanding the spatial and temporal spread of measles outbreaks provides insights for decision-making regarding measures to mitigate future epidemics.

Temporal and spatial analysis of over 7,000 measles cases outbreak from 2018 to 2019 in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT Objective: This study aimed to present a temporal and spatial analysis of the 2018 measles outbreak in Brazil, particularly in the metropolitan city of Manaus in the Amazon region, and further introduce a new tool for spatial analysis. Methods: We analyzed the geographical data of the residences of over 7,000 individuals with measles in Manaus during 2018 and 2019. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to characterize various aspects of the outbreak, including the onset and prevalence of symptoms, demographics, and vaccination status. A visualization tool was also constructed to display the geographical and temporal distribution of the reported measles cases. Results: Approximately 95% of the included participants had not received vaccination within the past decade. Heterogeneity was observed across all facets of the outbreak, including variations in the incubation period and symptom presentation. Age distribution exhibited two peaks, occurring at one year and 18 years of age, and the potential implications of this distribution on predictive analysis were discussed. Additionally, spatial analysis revealed that areas with the highest case densities tended to have the lowest standard of living. Conclusion: Understanding the spatial and temporal spread of measles outbreaks provides insights for decision-making regarding measures to mitigate future epidemics.

Thinking out of the box: revisiting health surveillance based on medical records.

Despite the considerable advances in the last years, the health information systems for health surveillance still need to overcome some critical issues so that epidemic detection can be performed in real time. For instance, despite the efforts of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) to make COVID-19 data available during the pandemic, delays due to data entry and data availability posed an additional threat to disease monitoring. Here, we propose a complementary approach by using electronic medical records (EMRs) data collected in real time to generate a system to enable insights from the local health surveillance system personnel. As a proof of concept, we assessed data from São Caetano do Sul City (SCS), São Paulo, Brazil. We used the "fever" term as a sentinel event. Regular expression techniques were applied to detect febrile diseases. Other specific terms such as "malaria," "dengue," "Zika," or any infectious disease were included in the dictionary and mapped to "fever." Additionally, after "tokenizing," we assessed the frequencies of most mentioned terms when fever was also mentioned in the patient complaint. The findings allowed us to detect the overlapping outbreaks of both COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 subvariant and Influenza A virus, which were confirmed by our team by analyzing data from private laboratories and another COVID-19 public monitoring system. Timely information generated from EMRs will be a very important tool to the decision-making process as well as research in epidemiology. Quality and security on the data produced is of paramount importance to allow the use by health surveillance systems.